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Feng Haining: Airy money is new politics business of the development that save c

From;    Author:Stand originally
Reduce to the Central Bank " double rate " , each just are unscrambled differ. Shi Ge of development business Pan is being accepted when interviewing, say " ' the liberation army ' came eventually " , still development business expresses to will adjust the company strategy that just has adjusted, "Unlock pace appropriately " . More observer think, this is the positive signal that the high level saves city, adumbrative government saves building city to stride the first pace. Apparent, in eye of a lot of people, the money is new politics it is building city helps exclusively straw. But according to observation, the money that the Central Bank rolls out is new politics, it is policy of a kind of p reaper only, by this " rescue " not building city. Whether does the Central Bank publish policy of more untie a person, the market after the key should see policy of this p reaper roll out reacts -- not be response of city seeing a building, see the integrated reaction of whole home market however, and international finance circumstances changes, want to see bow wave that borrows the crisis especially. Building city wants to stop drop " get warm again after a cold spell " , still depend on supply demand relations. If comb the financial policy of the near future to be able to discover, no matter be to offer,still just need square, financial policy does not have the meaning that supports actively. Only the individual local government such as Xi'an, Henan releases the signal that saves city, the building city that saves city for the most part perhaps maintains the current situation, perhaps continue low fan. In development business eye, the money of the Central Bank is new politics be " save army " . But meet what the last ten-day of a month allotted jointly in August from the Central Bank, silver-colored inspect " promote about finance managing the announcement that uses the ground " in light of, the intent that the Central Bank is restricted to borrow to developing business is very clear, be restricted impossibly to borrow untie a person a little while a little while. Figure from this, the money is new politics not be particularly big to the meaning of building city, development business is imagined " the liberation army came " , very foolish very innocent. Apply for to go bankrupt in American Lei Man's brother especially below the circumstance that protects a likelihood to cause financial storm, the Central Bank inspects financial safety impossibly at disregarding. From demand angle observation, the money of the Central Bank is new politics the meaning that also did not save city. This the Central Bank lowers interest, although can alleviate,buy room person pressure, but can not stimulate consumption effectively. Because bring about this round of building city deepness to adjust a main reason,this is, it is the 2nd flatlet is borrowed head pay proportional rise, want to stimulate consumption to must reduce a room to borrow a doorsill, but the money of the Central Bank is new politics did not involve a room to borrow a doorsill. Without demand support, why " liberate " building city? Additional, wait for mark sex city from Shenzhen, Shanghai depreciate wet, and 10 thousand divisions depreciate wait for expression to look, short-term inside building city depreciates agitation stops very hard, more development business may follow suit dozen fold, the situation is very bad abrupt changeover. More important is, no matter be investment model buy the home, still live oneself model buy the home, adjust through city of this round of building, already had sober understanding and rational judgement to building city, the person that buy a room resembles impossibly be being developed easily in that way before business flicker. For instance, "Depreciate wet " , " the disturbance that retreat a room " perform ceaselessly, had broken the myth that house price rises forever or goes up not to drop only. In addition, although depreciate,tide spreads, but how much didn't price sudden huge profits, house price sudden huge profits change, bubble still exists, it is very clear that this superintend a branch, accordingly, macroscopical adjusting control is impossible easily untie a person. Look in the author, development business Central Bank money new politics say for " the liberation army came eventually " , it is an illusion on one hand, it is a kind of wrong judgement. Phenomenon of such miscarriage of justice is very much, for instance, media public figure thinks, lower interest the policy compromise to estate is meant on certain level. Also be a kind of hype on the other hand, say to listen to superintendency branch already, in order to show building city longs for urgently " save army " the mood, say to listen to the person that buy a room again at the same time, do not buy a room to be able to regret, namely flicker buys room person to clutch buy a room. The author thinks, developing business to depreciate only just is an outlet, resemble 10 thousand divisions same, also have much channel financing only, ability peacefully " hibernate " .

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